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Cricket's Skill Revolution: Insights from Mayank and Arnav Jain
The conversation between host Mayank and guest Arnav Jain delves into the profound transformation of cricketing skills over the past two decades, illuminating how both batting and bowling techniques have evolved significantly. Arnav articulates the notion that the current cricketing landscape is markedly distinct from that of the early 2000s, primarily due to the emergence of new strategies, the influence of T20 formats, and the changing nature of pitches. They examine the implications of these shifts on player performance, particularly the decline in batting averages and the rising challenges faced by bowlers in today's game. Additionally, they explore the role of technology, such as DRS, in reshaping the dynamics of cricket. This dialogue not only encapsulates the shifting paradigms of cricket but also invites listeners to ponder the future of the sport in an ever-evolving competitive arena.
Links referenced in this episode:
Companies mentioned in this episode:
- Freeheat Gear
Transcript
From Virat Kohli's MCG 6 against Pakistan to Bumrah's stump destroying Yorker to Ollie Pope, incredible things happen on the cricket ground.
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Speaker B:Hello and welcome to the Last Wicked.
Speaker B:My name is Benny and thank you for joining us folks.
Speaker B:On today's episode, my co host Mike is joined by blogger and cricket analytics aficionado Arnav Jain.
Speaker B:Together they discuss the evolution of the cricketing arts, namely how batting and bowling has changed over the last two decades and how that redefines great performances in the modern era.
Speaker B:So if you like what you hear from Arnav, do check out his substack and give them a follow on social media.
Speaker B:We will have links in our show notes.
Speaker B:Now stay tuned for the conversation with Arnav Jain.
Speaker C:Hi Arnav, thank you for being here.
Speaker C:Welcome to the Last Wicket.
Speaker C:Wanted to first start by chatting and getting to you, getting to know you a little bit better.
Speaker C:I recently came across your really wonderful blog.
Speaker C:How did you get started writing about cricket?
Speaker C:And yeah, just how did you get into the numbers?
Speaker D:So hi, I'm.
Speaker D:First of all, thank you.
Speaker D:Thank you so much for having me here.
Speaker D:It's a pleasure.
Speaker D:I'm currently doing my engineering and just had this really, really deep passion for cricket from childhood.
Speaker D:So just learned these skills, learned analytics, learned machine learning, college days.
Speaker D:I think this is a period of time where I'm probably the freest.
Speaker D:I don't know if that's a word or not, but in from the past five to six years.
Speaker D:So I was just bored and wanted to do something.
Speaker D:Wanted to maybe apply these skills somewhere.
Speaker D:Got into cricket analytics, met a bunch of really, really cool people who guided me and yeah, I mean, I've been just writing a few articles here and there.
Speaker D:Let's see where it goes.
Speaker C:Awesome.
Speaker C:No, I've certainly enjoyed your articles and your take.
Speaker C:The, the one that absolutely stood out was, you know, the fact that you're not just writing articles but you created almost you can call a simulator or a web page where you can put in, you know, data and get a batter's record again T20s.
Speaker C:So I thought that was really cool.
Speaker C:But let's get into the topic for today.
Speaker C:So.
Speaker C:So the topic I've had in mind is something that I've been thinking about for more than just, you know, the last few months.
Speaker C:It's something that we've seen quite a bit change quite a bit in the last five years in my mind, especially post Covid when it comes to test cricket.
Speaker C:So a lot of people will talk about how, you know, the skills around batting have declined and that is why we are seeing low scoring test matches.
Speaker C:That is why we are seeing three day matches, things like that.
Speaker C:But there's obviously a lot more factors to it.
Speaker C:So let's talk about test cricket to start with and start with maybe some of the stats.
Speaker C:I believe last year was one of the most incredible years in test cricket considering the fewest draws.
Speaker C:And that is not a one off scenario, if I'm not wrong.
Speaker C:That seems to be a trend.
Speaker D:Yeah.
Speaker D: to compare it a lot with the: Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:It was the flat pitcher, as we call it, and it was an era where averages shot up.
Speaker D:So it's not like runs haven't been scored.
Speaker D:But it's just that as you talked about the draws, a lot of it is driven economically as well.
Speaker D:So if you, if you remember, there was this huge test match, cricket is dying debate and it's still pretty relevant.
Speaker D:But, and that's where we saw like surfaces which could produce results, surfaces which avoided draws.
Speaker D:And of course these surfaces will help the bowlers because you need 20 wickets to end the match.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:So the pitches have become difficult as well, of course.
Speaker D:And there are again a lot of factors.
Speaker D:You know, you have, you have white ball cricket, you have T20 gaining momentum.
Speaker D:So yeah, there's, there's a lot to it.
Speaker D:But I just feel that people, it's not as alarming as people assume it to be.
Speaker D:That's, that's what I feel.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker C:And, and that's a great way to sort of maybe do a deeper dive into the batting averages.
Speaker C: s the batting averages in the: Speaker D: Okay, so yeah,: Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D: I think after: Speaker D:So.
Speaker D:And yeah, it was, it was pretty visible.
Speaker D: ndly and progressing into the: Speaker D: But it's still, you know,: Speaker D:But then I feel that, uh, it's not just the averages where we have to look at it, but so a lot of it is being driven because of the fact that batters have not really been orthodox test batters.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:So runs have, have been scored, but it's just that it's not being scored in very test match ways as we call it.
Speaker D: have been declining from the: Speaker D:T20 has a bit of blame for it, but yeah, there's, there's also the mindset thing as well.
Speaker D:Batters now are taking a lot more risks.
Speaker D:There's this philosophy of a ball will eventually get me some, some sometime or the other, so why not?
Speaker D:I take my chances and that probably just demotivates them from applying, from, from really giving themselves some time.
Speaker D:And yeah, that's probably what has caused a lot of dismissals.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker C:And I think the other aspect of it is, you know, we, we touched on the pitches briefly, but the pitches have really changed even, you know, to look anecdotally in recent series.
Speaker C:So India, Australia, for example, the FIF at Sydney, saw one of the lowest scoring test matches in Sydney.
Speaker C:Even Australian commentators like Alan Border, Michael Slater, like all of the, all of them, Ravi Shastri, they all agreed that in the last 30 odd years they'd never seen a greener Sydney pitch.
Speaker C:And obviously these are people who've seen a lot of cricket, so they know it.
Speaker C: the highlights reel from the: Speaker C:So there's, you know, obviously there is some logic to that reasoning that you were exploring that, you know, somebody, the batters thinking, hey, I'm going to get out eventually.
Speaker C:There's too much on the pitch.
Speaker C:So there is some logic to that.
Speaker C:What are your thoughts about Drs though?
Speaker C:Obviously, DRS has also been a big factor in terms of change in the last seven to probably 10 years.
Speaker C:Thoughts on how that is influencing test cricket?
Speaker D:Yeah, I think, Shane one probably who said that I would have got a thousand wickets if I had Drs in my time.
Speaker D:Yeah, maybe, maybe it's true because if you look at the percentages of LBWs, they have increased in the, in the DRS era, interestingly, they have actually decreased for paces.
Speaker D:So it's, it's obviously which is expected as well because it's, it obviously favors the spinners a bit more.
Speaker D:So what was happening when there was no Drs is that there was a lot and lot of benefit of doubt being given to the batters.
Speaker D:So especially if you look, if you look at LBWS on front foot, empires were a bit reluctant to, to give them out there because ball tracking is a bit difficult for the naked eye.
Speaker D:But now it has obviously empires have become a bit more confident in giving a batter out on front foot because again, no empire wants to give incorrect decisions, right?
Speaker D:They have, they know that they have the backing of Drs, so maybe, you know, we'll get to the correct decision anyway.
Speaker D:So that has started happening.
Speaker D:So.
Speaker D:And now it has also encouraged batters to just play the, play the ball with the bat, right?
Speaker D:Not, not, not do the padding or all of that stuff.
Speaker D:So a lot of ways have been explored.
Speaker D:One of them is just on excessive turning tracks.
Speaker D:On tracks where the bounce is low, it's really, really dangerous to go on back foot batters have tend to come down the track to get to the pitch of the ball.
Speaker D:One thing I noted was that again, I don't know if, if it should, if all, all of the credit for it should be given to Drs, but the number of stumpings actually have increased in Test cricket as well.
Speaker D:So that could be one of the reasons because batters now are probably using their feet a bit more because they want to get bat on board.
Speaker D:So, yeah, it has definitely helped the spinners a lot more.
Speaker C:Yeah, and it's obviously pointing to one reason is challenging because cricket is a complex game and so DRS comes in, the techniques come in, the T20 impact comes in.
Speaker C:So obviously none of this is to say that, hey, this is all the, you know, Drs causing it, or just the pitches causing it.
Speaker C:It's obviously everything contributes to it, but it is very true.
Speaker C:The the fact that you mentioned about padding away, I think the last major batter to, you know, use that was probably Chatesh and he's been out of the side for more than two years now.
Speaker C:Apart from that, you know, whether it's somebody batting at number seven, eight, somebody like Akshar Patel or middle order batters, you know, you rarely see them playing with bat close to the pad because they know the risk of it, especially against spin, as you rightly called out.
Speaker C:What has all of this meant for averages by position?
Speaker C:I think in general we've all noticed that openers don't average as much.
Speaker C:Is it pretty much consistent throughout or are you seeing certain, maybe like number six when the ball goes softer, them averaging just as much as they did before.
Speaker D:Okay, so if you talk about averages by positions, yeah, op does have seen a pretty evident decrease, that's for sure.
Speaker D:But it's been throughout.
Speaker D:The magnitude has varied.
Speaker D:Of course, openers being openers being the ones which have seen a sharp decline.
Speaker D:But if you look at pitches in for example, Asia as well.
Speaker D:Right, they have.
Speaker D:So the contrast between the pitches actually in Sena countries and Asia has just increased with, with, with time.
Speaker D:So spinning pitches are turning more.
Speaker D:Same pitches are giving even more advantage to the pacers.
Speaker D:So when you talk about batters lowered out the other they are, they're expected to come at a time when probably the swing is gone and it's probably the spinners who are getting for getting to bowl more often.
Speaker D:But in Asia specifically, the lower down, the batters lower down have seen a decrease in averages in Sena nations.
Speaker D: re in Asia now than it was in: Speaker D:And same is the case with openers in Sena nations.
Speaker D:But openers for, for openers, it has been quite uniform across for batters load on the order.
Speaker D:It has been a bit more alarming in Asia.
Speaker C:Yeah, really interesting and I guess this makes me think how do you compare across eras?
Speaker C:Because that is the thing that people love to do.
Speaker C:You know, I grew up idolizing Rahul Dravid and I look at his stats and he's averages, you know, obviously retired with an average of greater than 50 in Test cricket.
Speaker C:And one of the best of our times of this era, Virat Kohli doesn't average that much.
Speaker C:And obviously there's a lot going on into it.
Speaker C:As we talked about pitches TRS coming into picture, just quality of bowling lineups which we haven't really explored yet.
Speaker C: ticular batter batting in the: Speaker D:Yeah.
Speaker D:Okay, so there's a bunch of articles I've seen on this.
Speaker D:So, okay, one of the ways is to just normalize it by all the other batters that have batted in that error, right.
Speaker D:So that ways you get the relative position of that batter in his or her hera.
Speaker D:But I feel that, which I don't know why a lot of people haven't done is you need to also factor in the region where they've played.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:So I think a more robust method for it is to average not just based on eras but also on regions.
Speaker D:So for example, if you want to compare a Ricky Ponting to a Virat Kohli, for example, so you'll have to take in consideration that probably Ponting is played more in Australia and Kohi, of course more in India, right?
Speaker D:So you'll have to take in the averages of, of that particular country in that era.
Speaker D:So you, you could maybe find that India was probably a better batting deck at that time than Australia.
Speaker D:So you'll have to give that credit to Ponting as well.
Speaker D:So which something actually another thing to compare is, and this actually I did as well for one of, one of the articles that I was doing is this era because the contrast of the pitches has increased.
Speaker D: e and spin as compared to the: Speaker D:So I did this.
Speaker D:We had these bins, similarity bins which were basically comparing how, how a batter is similar against pace and spin.
Speaker D:So what we found interestingly is that in this to, in, in the past decade, your, your overall average actually increased with, with you being equally abled against both pace and spin.
Speaker D: to maintain good averages in: Speaker D:So there was this likes of Brian Lara, likes of Ricky Ponting, likes of previous Lakshman.
Speaker D:They actually had a.07 0.8 factor differentiating them from pace and spin.
Speaker D:But still they were able to average 50s.
Speaker D:But it hasn't really happened with batters in this era because now you as a batter cannot say that, you know, okay, I, I'll have to play pace.
Speaker D:What I'll do is I'll maintain 50 or 60 averages in, in Sena and then okay, I don't have a strong spin game.
Speaker D:So I'll still be, still be able to average 30s in Asia.
Speaker D:No, because the, the, the pitches in Asia now are just spitting, spitting rank turners.
Speaker D:You will, you'll probably end up getting out on single digits or 15 runs or 20 runs max.
Speaker D: this tactic was successful in: Speaker D:Now it hasn't been possible.
Speaker D:One small validation for this theory is that Steve Smith actually was, was in the bin where averages were the most similar.
Speaker D:So Steve Smith average against pace and spin are very, very similar.
Speaker D:So he's probably one who's, who's been equally able against both pace and spin.
Speaker C:Who else?
Speaker C:I'm curious about that, that piece.
Speaker C:Who else falls into that category where their ability against pace or spin has been more or less very similar or their outputs?
Speaker C:I should say maybe not ability.
Speaker D:Okay, so Joe Root was someone again, his abilities were pretty similar.
Speaker D:Not as much as Steve Smith, but he was one.
Speaker D:If I remember correctly, Virat Kohli was actually far off.
Speaker D:Virat Kohli wasn't really there.
Speaker D:I don't really have the data right now, but yeah, I mean I can look for it, but yeah, right now I don't have the data for it.
Speaker C:No worries.
Speaker C:Yeah, Joe Root actually does not surprise me because I think he's over the years developed such a fantastic spin game.
Speaker C:You know, not just can he play on both front for back foot.
Speaker C:He sweeps the ball really well.
Speaker C:He reverses.
Speaker C: ven when England were here in: Speaker C:So yeah, he's consistently been somebody who is churning out runs irrespective of conditions, I guess.
Speaker C:What does this mean from a bowling perspective?
Speaker C:I know we've been really focused on batters.
Speaker C:How do you adjust for somebody like Bumra who obviously is a phenomenal bowler?
Speaker C:You know, there's, I don't think anybody's gonna doubt that.
Speaker C:And even the legends of the game agree that he's, you know, he's one of the best.
Speaker C:But somebody averaging 19 compared to somebody like Dale Stain, who himself was a phenomenon, an average 23.
Speaker C:But he played majority of his cricket obviously in a slightly flatter era.
Speaker C: probably didn't play all the: Speaker C:So how do you compare to that?
Speaker C:What you know, is there another measure that you've thought of which says how they're doing in different pitches or things like that?
Speaker D:Yeah.
Speaker D:Okay, so this, I actually went ahead and the fact that I told about not only comparing about eras, but also comparing the regions where they've bowled in.
Speaker D:So one way was to basically get the percentages of all the balls delivered by Dale Stain in Australia and South Africa and India everywhere.
Speaker D:And then you assign a weight to.
Speaker D:So for example, if dale Staines bowled 60% of his balls in South Africa, you'll say, okay, I'll, I'll see what all averages were there of, of, of pacers in South Africa.
Speaker D:I'll assign it a 0.6 weight.
Speaker D:And similarly for other countries.
Speaker D:And then this is the factor I normalize Dale Stain with.
Speaker D:So by, by doing this, you're not only normalizing with era, you're also normalizing with the region in which that particular border is bold in.
Speaker D:So actually, yeah, so Bumra actually does better than Stain even with the ERA normalized and region normalized.
Speaker D:Course, but they've actually been, they've actually been the leaders of their era.
Speaker D:That's, that has been validated.
Speaker D:They have pretty similar numbers.
Speaker D:So Bum ranked third in his era.
Speaker D:If you, if, if I, if I put a filter of 50 wickets, I think there was Scott Boland and Kyle Jameson up above him, but if I change that filter to 100, Bumra comes up as the number one.
Speaker D: t Dale Stain and the, and the: Speaker D:But as soon as I put up 100 wicket filter, he was number one.
Speaker D:So they were in that sense leaders of their era.
Speaker C:But yeah, Boomra Pipstin, that's really interesting.
Speaker C:Where do.
Speaker C:Obviously today's ERA has a lot of, you know, really, really great fast bowlers.
Speaker C:In Rabada, in Pat Cummins and Josh Hazelwood, where do they rank?
Speaker C:Like, do their numbers seem, you know, do they still appear to be in the top five of their era or do then do the numbers difference?
Speaker D:Rabada was actually number two.
Speaker D:If again, so there's, there's a difference on how many wickets I look at.
Speaker D:Among 100 plus wickets, Bumra is number one, Rabada is number two.
Speaker D:Then there's James Anderson, Pat Cummins, Neil Wagner.
Speaker D:These are the top five.
Speaker D: And among, if you look at the: Speaker D:But then yeah, I think because of the fact that I've normalized this by region, we've got Zaheer Khan actually after Dale Stain and then there's Mitchell Johnson who's on number three.
Speaker D:So yeah, these are the leaders of the respective eras.
Speaker C:That's really interesting.
Speaker C:I had, I will be honest, like as much as I like Saheed Khan and I, you know, loved him growing up, I had not expected him to be in the top three.
Speaker C:And it's partly because you know, as you said, like he bowled a lot on flat Indian wickets where probably spinners bowled a lot and it didn't, you know, he didn't appear to be in the limelight.
Speaker C:So these things can be surprising.
Speaker C:We've talked a lot about, you know, just test cricket.
Speaker C:One last thing about test cricket that comes to mind is just the depth of bowling lineups.
Speaker C:I think we're also in an era where the fourth bowler averages much lower than previously.
Speaker C:And this obviously the pitches play a part but it's also just an indicator of the depth that teams have in the past.
Speaker C: Like in the: Speaker C: ay the Australia of the early: Speaker C:So then you would have a lot of people who played a number of tests but probably weren't at the same level.
Speaker C:Somebody like Bretley for example, a fine fast bowler but probably known better for his limited over exploits rather than test cricket.
Speaker C:I, I think that has changed as well.
Speaker C:Have you seen any trends where you know, more fourth bowlers are way more competitive, you know and maybe it's because we just have teams going with more, you know, full time bowlers are than all rounders.
Speaker C:Any, any such trends that you know, noticed.
Speaker D:Yeah.
Speaker D:Okay.
Speaker D:So one thing that for example you talked about, Bretley, I think there has been a bit more segregation of players right now.
Speaker D:So if you, if you look at Australia, they, the value Cummins, Stark, Hazelwood, lion and the value that their test cricket, they value the.
Speaker D:So there's a lot of segregation.
Speaker D:They'll not be seen playing a lot of limited overs cricket if there's a big test season coming up.
Speaker D:So it's a lot on teams as well that the, the importance of taking 20 wickets has really increased.
Speaker D:You know, teams have understood the fact that you want to finish games off.
Speaker D:You have to pick 20 wickets.
Speaker D:Don't really have any data trends on it as of now, but I feel that one thing which has influenced this, again, better bowling pitches.
Speaker D:So you need, you need to cover up for tiring bowlers.
Speaker D:You need to cover up for bowlers who are probably injury prone.
Speaker D:So you got to have really a good, good set of, especially if you talk about pacers, you really have need to have a good set of, let's say a three or four bowler.
Speaker D:So this has also happened because of just the workload being increased.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:So every team now develops a lot more, a lot more for their, for their Test cricket.
Speaker D:When you talk about that, it's, it's just not a one or two leading bowler, but you need to cover up for him when probably he's injured or he's, he's tired.
Speaker D:So I think that has happened a bit more with, with white ball cricket rising, with leagues rising.
Speaker D:And yeah, apart from that, it's just a lot, a lot.
Speaker D:Actually, this has been the biggest reason.
Speaker D:The pitches have, have really favored the bowlers a lot more.
Speaker C:Yeah, an interesting aspect of that is, you know, I was discussing this with friends and they were saying, well, maybe we, you know, teams should stop having such contrasting wickets at home.
Speaker C:But the aspect that comes into play is at the end of the day, all teams are looking to maximize their chances of a result with the World Test Championship coming up.
Speaker D:That is a big factor.
Speaker C:Yeah, So I was just saying, like, that's more probably a more recent phenomenon, maybe last four years rather than even 10 years that we can say for the DRS, because even, let's say the India New Zealand series recently, Even after being 20 down, India had to back a spinning track and say we need to increase our chances of a result because they were thinking, hey, maybe we can sneak a few wins in Australia and get through to the final.
Speaker D:Yeah.
Speaker D:So again, WTC is, as you said, a more recent phenomena.
Speaker D:And I don't think there's anything wrong in that though, because again, it's, it's a championship on the line.
Speaker D:You want to maximize the chances.
Speaker D:But it's definitely made for me, for example, as a fan, Test cricket a bit more exciting because, you know, the most boring thing to see in a Test match Is to have two batters is who 400 runs together and then there's no way to get them out.
Speaker D:So spicier decks probably negate that.
Speaker D:And it actually comes a lot down to batters as well.
Speaker D:Then I think it was Stephen Fleming who said this.
Speaker D:One of the games of SA20 where Super Kings were down at 99 or 100 runs.
Speaker D:And he said that modern day batters, the only trick they have to, to get out of, get out of a situation is just to hit.
Speaker D:So I think that that application part has reduced down a bit.
Speaker D:I don't think it's right to call out the pitches for, for a lack of batters application, but I actually see this as a positive thing for test cricket.
Speaker C:I would agree.
Speaker C:I mean I, I do think that it's not just application.
Speaker C:I will say that in general, yes, that has reduced, but you see plenty of innings where batters are trying to, you know, watch it out, struggle it out.
Speaker C:In Australia we saw innings where the batters were facing 60 balls for 15 runs.
Speaker C:And in, in the recent series.
Speaker C:So those things happen.
Speaker C:But, but I think the aspect of it which I find pretty interesting is sure like pitches have changed, all of that has changed, but the, the one aspect we've probably not explored as much is also the fact that the balls have changed.
Speaker C:So in Australia, for that matter, Greg blew it in the recent series.
Speaker C: kaburra ball, changed back in: Speaker C:So it was just a sign of all these minor things.
Speaker C:And I think that's happened with the Duke ball as well.
Speaker C:Where once season there was just a lot of wickets and then they did something to the seam and then next wicket, next year onwards, basball started.
Speaker C:So obviously the conditions favored the ball was in their favor and England had tried all their methods.
Speaker C:So suddenly they switched to basball and everybody felt that was the big change.
Speaker C:But obviously there were the other as well.
Speaker C:Absolutely.
Speaker D:As well, favoring seamers even more.
Speaker C:Yep, yep.
Speaker C:All right with that let's switch to odi cricket or limited overs cricket rather.
Speaker C:So we, we talk about limited overs cricket because the trend is a little bit different.
Speaker C:One of the heroes of, well I shouldn't say limited over was.
Speaker C:He's generally a hero of cricket in general.
Speaker C:Sachin Tendulkar once was asked about the batting era of today and he was very in.
Speaker C:Despite making 18,000 ODI runs, he thought he would have scored more had he played in today's era, which I find fascinating because how can that man not be satisfied with the amount of runs he scored?
Speaker C:But tell us, what have you seen from a trend perspective in OD acriquet?
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker D:Okay, so there has been a net increase of let's say 30 or 30, 35 runs in first training scores.
Speaker D:So that's been there but it's not been a uniform increase with that.
Speaker D:I mean is it.
Speaker D: ly the scores peaked a lot in: Speaker D:I think the average total there was 290, 295.
Speaker D:That was the average.
Speaker D:So from there it went on a decline for a lot of, for a lot of teams.
Speaker D:But some of the top teams where we talk about the big three plus you could, you can add South Africa in this list as well.
Speaker D: to sustain these numbers post: Speaker D:But so there's a very clear evident gap if you see between let's say the big three plus South Africa and all the other teams when you talk about white ball batting.
Speaker D:But in general the scores have increased and again a lot of factors play a part in it.
Speaker D:The, the phase wise score if you look, because now we are using two balls for example in Odea cricket there's a lot, a lot less reversing you see in, in the later, in the later overs.
Speaker D: as increased significantly in: Speaker D:So yeah, these, these are the trends that have been there.
Speaker D:I would say the biggest takeaway is that only a few teams I would say have been able to sustain large numbers.
Speaker D:And yeah, there's a clear, clear evident gap between the others and the top teams.
Speaker C:What do you think about bowling as well?
Speaker C:So obviously you mentioned the fact that they were.
Speaker C: he way was introduced for the: Speaker C:We're coming up on another Champions Trophy as we speak.
Speaker C:So that is where we introduced that.
Speaker C:Obviously that had impact to you know, the reverse swing.
Speaker C:But there was also an increase in risk spinners in the last decade.
Speaker C:How has that come into play, do you think?
Speaker C:That's a little bit of DRS plus just you know, teams trying to find ways to keep things interesting no matter whether it's a right hander or left hander.
Speaker C:You know, wristbin spinners often have the ability to spin the ball both ways.
Speaker C:So did some of those advantages come were some of those reasons why wristband became a lot more prominent?
Speaker D:Okay, so risk spinners have traditionally been seen as wicket takers.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:So the idea with Rispin more, more, more or less in the middle over specifically no day cricket is to just break the momentum by taking wickets as simple as that.
Speaker D:With again with two new balls you would probably have, if, if there was again with a, with reverse swing possible with a single ball you would have had a lot more paces bowling post 30, 35 overs as well.
Speaker D:But that 30 to 40 overs actually has seen a lot, has seen an increase in spin in general.
Speaker D:I don't know if it's specifically spin or not that, that I haven't checked but spinners definitely phase wise.
Speaker D:If you, if you see the middle overs for spin has increased in ode cricket and again because the, the pitches have become a lot more flatter.
Speaker D:So in those middle overs you would expect a batter to maybe find it a bit easier to score off of a pacer because even the ball is not balls not softening.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:So with hard balls you, you would actually have, maybe the batter would find easier to score off of pacers with hard balls.
Speaker D:So that's, that's been the idea with spin run.
Speaker D:If you look at spinners economy they have been better than pacers.
Speaker D:Again there could be a reason because they're bowling in the, in the middle overs.
Speaker D:But yeah it's, it's majorly their wicket taking ability plus the fact that with new balls you have harder ones and probably they're, they're easier to hit off on paces.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker C:And the other aspect is we'll talk about T20s of course, but I think we've seen something similar with T20s.
Speaker C:A lot of risk spinners coming in.
Speaker C:But before we go there, the other aspect that comes to mind is obviously whether it's, whether you call it the influence of T20s or just focus on fitness and power hitting chasing bigger totals is becoming more and more, you know, easier in ODI cricket.
Speaker C: es a lot more frequently post: Speaker C:So it's not just a one off but it's actually a trend.
Speaker C:What do you see like from that perspective, like just the strike rate increase, run rate increase, has that made batting second a lot more lucrative or do you think it's still a little bit regional?
Speaker C:Kind of depends on the pitch and, and the team's strength.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker D:Okay.
Speaker D:So I think batting second, one of the major reasons for it and this actually I've, you can, you can club T20 cricket here for this explanation as well is in recent years there has been a lot of focus on batting depth.
Speaker D:You know, teams have been fine to compromise their fifth bowler options.
Speaker D:They'll, they'll have batting all rounders bowling those fifth and sixth polar options but they're not ready to compromise on batting depth.
Speaker D:So if you see in recent years the scores have increased but so have been the, the number of wickets that have fallen.
Speaker D:So that, that can now only happen if you have the, the batters who are coming later in the order also being able to bat a bit more.
Speaker D:Another thing to observe is if you look at the top seven batters their averages have decreased but their strike rates have increased.
Speaker D:So that, that basically means that them probably a bit more confident on the lower order.
Speaker D:So again that could be one of the reasons why chasing now has been a bit more preferred option because teams know they have let's say eight or nine batters who can, can smash the ball and they can just go right through 20 overs or 50 overs, whatever you want to take.
Speaker D: y decreased a bit again as in: Speaker D:That was the least in the last four to five years.
Speaker D: That was, that was that in: Speaker D:So again there has been a lot more focus on keeping batting depth even if it comes at a cost of bowling depth.
Speaker D:So that's, that's one of the reasons why I think chasing has been preferred.
Speaker D:But again pitches have been playing good throughout the 140 overs.
Speaker D:If you want to say it's they've not been, they've not been pitches where we've, we've not seen a lot of pitches where they've really slowed down with the game or there then there's the ground dimensions as well.
Speaker D:You know bound rating has become a lot lot more simpler.
Speaker D:So maybe you know, it's just a target in front of you is probably an easier way to win a game than, than to defend it.
Speaker C:What about I guess T20 cricket?
Speaker C:Let's switch to that.
Speaker C:Obviously the run scoring has inflated quite a bit in the last few years and we are particularly seeing that in franchise cricket like the IPL where last season as an example was an extremely high scoring season.
Speaker C:A lot of 200 plus runs, lot of 200 plus chases as well and yeah, so thoughts on that.
Speaker C:I think one aspect that we should probably explore is also just specialists.
Speaker C: park, which, you know, early: Speaker C:That was unimaginable.
Speaker C:Like you would be crucified if you did or tried to do something like that and got out.
Speaker D:Yeah.
Speaker D:Okay, so first of all, as you spoke about the ipl, there was, there was this thing of whether it's the new norm or whether it's just because of the impact sub, you know.
Speaker D:But again, impact sub will of course benefit a bit because you literally have an extra baton in your team.
Speaker D:Right?
Speaker D:There will be a benefit of it, but at least from an Indian cricket point of view, you can, you can.
Speaker D: re after, in, specifically in: Speaker D:So, you know, you don't have an impact seven international cricket.
Speaker D:So that's one thing.
Speaker D:It's a lot dependent on the mindset, I feel.
Speaker D:But again, as we spoke of batting depth as well in limited overs cricket, there has been a lot of pressure now on bowlers to, to be able to bat.
Speaker D:So you'll, you'll see a lot more bowlers now doing those range, hitting, doing those hitting, hitting sixes, you know, in the nets.
Speaker D:That's actually a bit more for bowlers to be able to bat than for batters to be able to go like, feel.
Speaker D:Because as I said, the focus is more on batting depth rather than bowling depth.
Speaker D:There, there used to be this philosophy of batters win your games and bowlers win your tournaments.
Speaker D:That's probably been thrown in the bins in last a couple of years because teams really have been trying to win tournaments on their batting capabilities.
Speaker D:Now, you know, there has been efforts to just score 250, 260 and just outscore your opponent right away.
Speaker D:That has increased a lot.
Speaker D:So with respect to players coming with specialist abilities, hitting, you know, ability to hit right on the first ball, again, I just see it as a combination of mindset and just the, the practices that, that have changed now.
Speaker D:There has been a lot more focus on, on, on muscular hitting.
Speaker D:You know, you, you don't care if it's, if it comes off the bat well or not.
Speaker D:If you, if, if you've got the power, you plus again, the dimensions have decreased.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:You don't really need perfect timing now per se to, to really clear those, those boundaries.
Speaker D:So yeah, I think it's a combination of these things.
Speaker C:Have you done any, I'm just curious, have you done any analysis on limited OS cricket like you did with test cricket where you said, you know, normalizing, looking at all of that, where does what player stand?
Speaker D:Yeah, okay, so I did this again to find out if.
Speaker D:So I did this score and wickets thing first of all as to start off with.
Speaker D:From there I went on to see, okay, the score has increased, Vasto has the number of wickets, which led me to the fact that the focus has been more on the strike rate because you have a lot more batters now coming in.
Speaker D:But if you look at ERA wise right now, I don't, I haven't really done any analysis on that.
Speaker D:It's, it's majorly been on where the runs have been scored more and where not.
Speaker D:So one interesting thing was that, and I think it was expected as well, the difference in number of runs being scored in T20 in the first 10 and the last 10 overs in the last two years was the least.
Speaker D:So there have been a lot of these common tactics where, you know, you say that okay, we'll go at 7 and 8 per over in the first 10 and then in the last 10 we'll go at 10 and over, you will get 180, 90 total that those tactics have changed.
Speaker D:Again.
Speaker D:This, this takes us back to the point where you said that batters have now, you know, just come, have this ability to come right from the first ball and just smash it out of the park.
Speaker D:So that, that has actually been used by a lot of teams throughout the 20 over.
Speaker D:So it's not now that we'll maximize the chances in the last five overs and we'll save the wickets in first 15.
Speaker D:No, it's been right throughout the 20 overs where teams, teams have taken more chances and scoring actually has been a lot more balanced throughout the 20 overs.
Speaker D:Now.
Speaker C:That'S really interesting.
Speaker C:And, and is this a trend that you see across countries like, or is.
Speaker C:Are there some countries who are doing that better than others in the sense that normalization or, or fast coding maybe like certain conditions are still not as flat as others.
Speaker D:Okay, yeah.
Speaker D:So India has become a deathbed for bullers pretty much in the, in T20 cricket.
Speaker D:So that's there.
Speaker D:But again you would see us in, in conditions like Australia where at least the boundary sizes have not been decreased that much right now.
Speaker D:Ebola still find a bit better conditions.
Speaker D:You've seen that in BBL as well.
Speaker D:Those scores haven't gone really as high as let's say ipl, we used to have a few good pitches in India.
Speaker D:You know, Chennai was one where probably there was a lot more.
Speaker D:For Spain in, in the last season, even that, that's probably gone as well.
Speaker D:So India, the pitches are dying, but I think outside it's still, it's still pretty much balanced.
Speaker D:It's not as, as bad as hair, but it is a rising trend for a lot more countries as well.
Speaker D:Again, as I said, there is a gap, there is a gap in batting abilities.
Speaker D:So you would find that in games involving the top three or four countries, the scores will probably be a bit more than probably games involving the countries who are ranked below.
Speaker D:So it's a curve where only a few countries have been able to follow, follow that trend.
Speaker D:But with scores rising with 200 becoming a norm, I just feel that the gap between some of the countries which really have these capabilities and those don't, will only increase.
Speaker C:Yeah, really, really interesting.
Speaker C:And that's not surprising because any trends we generally see for the most part, whether it comes to elite fitness, things like that, they probably first come to the top three four countries which have the best infrastructure.
Speaker C:So it kind of translates to those results.
Speaker C:The other aspect of it I guess is we talked about Test cricket and we both agreed that we don't really mind those spicy pitches because hey, you're not sitting around watching Rahul Dravid and Sehwag have a 411 run partnership on a flat Multan track.
Speaker C:You know, that doesn't happen anymore.
Speaker C:And it's not as.
Speaker C:It's basically it keeps you in the game and Test cricket, almost every ball, you know just how spicy the wickets are.
Speaker C:What are your thoughts on the pitches in limited overs cricket?
Speaker C:Have they gone the other extreme too, too far?
Speaker D:Yeah, they have.
Speaker D:They have for sure.
Speaker D:I think I pretty much really enjoyed this year's SA20 for this reason because you had these really varied pitches this time across different venues.
Speaker D:You had this pitch at Pal where 20 overs of spin were bowled.
Speaker D: that India Sri Lanka game in: Speaker D:I, I thought where India actually ended up scoring 130 for 4 and I just thought that it's not a score that you can imagine right now, right.
Speaker D:Because losing four wickets, 430 would, would mean nothing.
Speaker D:It, it actually means that you are, you are satisfied with this total because if you weren't you, you would have pushed, pushed a bit more.
Speaker D:Right?
Speaker D:So I think it, it has gone a bit too far.
Speaker D:Again, as I said, it's not good for T20 cricket because the competitiveness will decrease.
Speaker D:You wouldn't expect any competition from Bangladesh for example turning up against India because they don't have the capability to chase 200 plus totals.
Speaker D:So there still has to be varied pitches.
Speaker D:There has to be.
Speaker D:There are I think in IPL at least we, we had this, we had this time where you would expect in Chennai you would expect spinning tracks in 1:30 you would expect good bouncy tracks.
Speaker D:But yeah, I don't think that every track on every, every track should allow you to score 200 and that easily.
Speaker D:So variety actually has to be respected a bit more.
Speaker D:And yeah, I think the major point for me is to, to just you know, maintain the competitiveness of, of this, of this format because it is a format, it is the only format which can give chances to probably a bit teams which are you know, lagging behind a bit because you won't expect that in Test cricket.
Speaker D:For now.
Speaker C:Yeah, that's a great point.
Speaker C:And I think as I think about variety I feel like same can be said about Test cricket particularly in India.
Speaker C:I think in Australia and England these pitches and Test crickets still have their well known characteristics.
Speaker C:So if you go to Perth you know it's going to be a bouncy fast wicket.
Speaker C:But in India they've become sort of homogenous in the sense that hey, everything spins a lot at least in the last few years which wasn't really the case.
Speaker C:You know I think we used to see hey, if you go to Rajkot for example it would be probably a flatter wicket.
Speaker C:So it tested different players in different ways which I don't think is happening as much.
Speaker C:And I think that is what makes cricket interesting.
Speaker C:If I'm watching the same game again and again just played out in a different venue, it makes it a little bit less interesting but also it minimizes certain roles.
Speaker C:So in T20s like you could essentially get to a point if this trend continues that is that you have somebody like a Bumra, maybe a Varun Chakravarti, like somebody who's really a wicket taker.
Speaker C:And apart from that you just have part timers, you know, Abhishek Sharmaaz and Shivam Dubey's of the world bowling to complete the 20 over quota.
Speaker C:So yeah, in that regard definitely the SA 20 I didn't get a chance to watch it too much but it definitely felt very interesting that certain teams were very specific with their spin targets Pal Royals in particular, you know, trying to emphasize on that and it made the competition so much more interesting because every team was trying to play to those, to their strengths while also trying to make sure they're ready when they, when they go to another, another team's home ground.
Speaker C:Well, with that arnav, any other trends that we haven't touched on, anything else that you feel we haven't touched on before we wrap up?
Speaker D:Yeah, one thing actually I've been pretty eager to see is how the concept of the future of drop in pitches go as, as we now move into a space where, because they're necessary because not every country can have cricket only grounds.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:In India at least, I don't think we need drop in pitches ever.
Speaker D:But you've seen in Australia, you've seen in South Africa, their, their cricket grounds are not only for cricket.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:There are other sports they play as well.
Speaker D:So it's been a very mixed response for dropping pitches because a, they, they're not really known to mimic the conditions of the place particularly well.
Speaker D:The best, the best they can do is use the soil that is used originally in that place but then that pitch will not be exposed to let's say the same weather conditions of that place.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker D:So that has not happened with them.
Speaker D:Plus in Test cricket they haven't really been known to break or become slow in the same way as, as a traditional pitch would in, in a five day game because they are bounded by these metals, metal structures and they don't break easily.
Speaker D:But South Africa actually was, I read somewhere was planning to use them in 20, 27 World cup now in ODA World Cup.
Speaker D:So that's one thing which I'm, which I'm eager to see how this concept of drop in pitches will evolve.
Speaker D:Yeah, that's the only thing.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker C:I wonder if that's going to increase the speed towards homogeneous pitches.
Speaker C:Hopefully not, but maybe we'll have you back again in some time as we, as we see some more data on drop in pitches with that arnav, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker C:It's been a real pleasure chatting with you and getting your insights for our listeners.
Speaker C:I'll make sure we share arnav's amazing substack.
Speaker C:Do subscribe and give it, you know, do subscribe and share.
Speaker D:Thanks.
Speaker D:Thanks a lot Mayank.
Speaker D:It was likewise a pleasure to talk.
Speaker D:Thanks for having me.
Speaker D:Thank you so much.
